Theory of change
How prevention education becomes measurable change.
If people, whānau and communities have the language, confidence and pathways to recognise and interrupt disrespect early, then fewer relationships will escalate into harm — and the change will compound across generations.
What we are assuming
Every theory of change rests on assumptions. Most go unstated, which makes them impossible to test. Ours are listed so they can be challenged.
Prevention capability is learnable, and best learned before it is needed.
Most disclosure travels through peer networks first, so peers must be equipped.
Change that is locally owned outlasts change that is externally delivered.
Response services remain essential; prevention reduces demand on them rather than replacing them.
Communities are the experts on their own context. We bring method, not answers.
The chain, stage by stage
Six stages, each with a stated timeframe. The colour deepens across the chain — but so does the difficulty of evidencing it, which is the subject of the final section on this page.
Inputs
Continuous
- Grant and partnership funding
- Trained, vetted facilitators
- Evidence-based workshop curriculum
- Community, iwi and organisational relationships
- Volunteer capability
Activities
Year 1
- Deliver workshops in communities, clubs and workplaces
- Train local facilitators
- Publish free resources
- Build referral pathways with specialist services
Outputs
Year 1
- People, whānau and workshop hosts complete programmes
- Local facilitators credentialled
- Disclosure pathways documented and practised
Short-term outcomes
Years 1–2
- Participants can recognise and name coercive patterns
- Participants know how to seek and offer help
- Adults respond to disclosure safely and consistently
- Disclosure rises — a trust indicator, expected and welcomed
Medium-term outcomes
Years 3–5
- Peer and whānau norms shift measurably
- Communities sustain delivery without us
- Earlier help-seeking, before escalation
- Institutions embed prevention into their own practice
Long-term impact
Years 5–25
- Reduced incidence of family violence and sexual violence
- Reduced downstream health, justice and welfare cost
- Intergenerational change in what is treated as normal
Why the change compounds
Prevention capability does not stay with the person who learns it. This is the mechanism that makes a modest per-participant cost defensible at population scale.
1 person
One person learns
Someone learns to name control for what it is — and that asking for help is not disloyal.
~12 people
A group of friends shifts
They tell their mates. What the group treats as normal quietly moves, and stays moved.
~5 households
A whānau changes
The kōrero reaches home. A parent responds differently to the way they were raised.
~900 people
A community changes
Organisers know what to do when someone speaks up, and so does everyone else. Reports go up before harm goes down — that is the system working.
A generation
A generation carries it on
Those people become parents, coaches, managers and mentors. The learning adds up.
The limits of what we can claim
We can evidence the first four stages of this chain with our own data. Stages five and six require population-level research over decades, in partnership with universities and government agencies. We contribute to that evidence base; we do not claim sole credit for it. Any organisation telling you it can attribute a national statistic to its own programme is overstating its case.
What we evidence ourselves
Stages one to four — inputs, activities, outputs and short-term outcomes. Measured with a validated instrument at delivery, at 12 weeks and at 12 months, and independently evaluated.
What we contribute to but cannot claim
Stages five and six — population-level change in incidence and downstream cost. These require decades of research across the whole prevention system. We contribute to that evidence base; we do not take sole credit for it.